Does
Domenico Cempella deserve special praises for his management? Reading the
communicates -often enthusiastic- annex to the Balance 1997, it does seem
so.
An backlightening examine
lead us to different conclusions. It's necessary to premise that the “operative
result” - the one that highlight the service effectiveness or not, expressed
in economic terms - is receivable since 5 years, in the consolidated Balance.
The improving of the 'gross
operative result' is an acceptable data, but it is not sublime. In 1997,
in effect (as reported in the Administrators' report): “the air transportation
industry has reached significant rates of traffic growing”, from 7.5% pointed
out for IATA, to the AEA's 9.7%, while the Alitalia passenger proceeds
have grown up to +4.2% and the gross sales amount has been benefited by
the exchanges trend, the increase of the airport taxes, the goods proceeds
increase performed notwithstanding the decrease of total transport, etc.
Maybe the so acclaimed economic improvement brought by Campella haven't
yet appeared in the management.
Observing realistically
that the benefits coming from the less financial burden are not due to
the management and that the performed sharepremium by the means of shareholdings
transfer extraordinary entries are in fact extraordinary and not repeatable,
it must be concluded that the difference between the 1.202 thousand millions
of loss in 1996 and the profits of 563 thousand millions in 1997 comes
almost completely from external to the operative activity factors. It's
quite probable that just to avoid deepening about Balance 1997, the
Alitalia staff, when meeting financial analysts to show the capital rise,
has preferred to talk about future, outlining - as reported by Corriere
della Sera on past 7 - the 15% ROE target starting on 2001. What about
the 1997 ROE? Any of the exegetes mentioned it, maybe because it was not
so flattering. The paper panegyric founded on the Managing Director Dr.
Cempella declaration at the Stockholders Assembly: “the accounts of the
firs four months are active and this occur for the first time in many years.
“. Dr. Cempella, otherwise, did not known how to answer at whom asked at
what extent the accounts have been better than those of 1996, which was
the magnitude of activities and how it was computed.
He did not answer because,
as everybody who is familiar with book-keeping and balances knows, gains
or losses in a single period are not measurable because it must follows
costs and proceeds to the “gross operative margin”. Domenico Cempella's
declaration is to be considered as a general indication not as a documentary
statement. It's a fact, on the contrary, that this (unprecise and indefinite)
'active' has been reported and exalted by quite baffling titles in most
works concerning assemblies. During the assembly, on the contrary, it has
come out important information, that have not been reported. The most emblematic
is the declaration of the chairman Fausto Cereti about the title return.
The Board of Directors - it has been said very clearly - pursues the target
(on an indefinite date) to reward the shares with a 2% dividend of the
assets at the book value. That is, evaluating the share value equal to
nearly 7.500 Lit., the purpose is to distribute, on some unknown day, a
dividend of nearly 150 Lit.(one hundred and fifty).
So that a saver who invests
today more than 30.000/35.000 Lit. must expect in two, three and/or four
years (maybe) to receive a dividend per year of 150 Lit. before taxation.
Is it logic? Maybe not, notwithstanding the price at the stock exchange
goes on increasing. Maybe because somebody likes it. It is certain that
the Alitalia External Relations Department (responsible Marco Zanichelli)
is very efficient.
They create and maintain
around the company hyper-liking conditions concerning what it has been
done in 1997, about what it should be in 1998, about targets in 2000, however
all that lacks of all documentary support. May the Marco Zanichelli activism
be enough to determinate the media unanimous support and bring the quotation
to values which do not have any reference to reality (nor in terms of assets
nor in terms of the future returns). Those are facts to pay attention to.
Alitalia is therefore at the centre of anomalous attentions and interests.
Shares reach “mad” prices. All is an element of a puzzle. It is possible
(and probable) that someone knows the solution and at his time will draw
the premium. On completion, in the meeting with the financial analyst (and
reporters) which took place in Milan on past 5, the IRI General Manager,
Pietro Ciucci, has underlined that the Iri will recover 900 thousands millions
in capital rise account. But at the end of the privatisation of the company
“considering its market values” (sic!) Ciucci goes on explaining, l'IRI
relies to obtain a return no less than 50% of investment. Prosit!
 |
|
.
Domenico Cempella
|
Italian
Mensile di scienza medica e attualita`
