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Global warming, BSE, exhaustion of
the planet’s natural resources: new problems distress humanity and those
who should be leading us across the ford not always rise to the occasion.
Even
though distracted by the endless series of daily problems, public opinion
is starting to pay more attention to the issues which have a medium/long-tern
significance, that is to the prospect of epoch-making transformations
resulting from the growing impact of man’s activity on nature: the greenhouse
effect, deforestation, the outbreak of new diseases, the depletion of
energy supplies, the extinction of an ever increasing number of animal
and vegetable species, the insufficiency of water resources, genetic
manipulation, and even certain new inventions.
Let
us start with the greenhouse effect: up to about ten years ago, most
people regarded it as some sort of urban legend, a rather science-fiction
idea which certain scientists made use of to obtain funds and to be
talked about.
There
were really few people who believed that spray cans could cause holes
in the ozone layer, that exhaust emission could warm the atmosphere
to the point of causing the polar icecap to melt, the global sea level
to rise or dramatic climate shifts. Today, with this whirlwind of concerns
we are bombarded with every day, also from the United Nations, as to
potentially catastrophic events foreseen within a relatively short period
of time, people are actually starting to believe it. When it was signed,
very few knew the actual contents of the Kyoto Protocol for the progressive
reduction of noxious gasses; now that the conference which was supposed
to implement the agreement has miserably failed, people are getting
anxious and worried about the future. The dispute between the United
States, who also want to include the ecological investments made in
the Third World, and Europe, who on the other hand claims that each
country should bear its own spending cuts, has caused arguments even
among outsiders.
In
other words, the greenhouse effect is no longer a right-wing or a left-wing
problem, but has become A PROBLEM to all intents and purposes;
and besides the so-called population of Seattle, it now also affects
businessmen, tour operators, engineers and so on.
A
problem which is strictly related to the greenhouse effect, is the apprehension
arising from the systematic destruction of the equatorial forests, proper
oxygen manufactures, which continue to represent the most effective
antidote against the excessive production of carbon dioxide: maybe one
person out of a hundred has actually had the opportunity to see with
his/her own eyes what deforestation actually means, and if we did not
read newspapers or watch TV we would not even know about its existence.
Still,
when we are informed that the surface of these “lungs of the world”
is reduced each year by 1%, because it is difficult to stop a very profitable
business and emergent countries need new land to farm in order to nourish
an ever growing population, we start asking ourselves how it will be
possible to replace the air we breath in a century’s time, when the
forests will have ceased to exist. Fear, fear, fear: this seems to be
one of the peculiarities of today’s man.
Among
the many psychological, alimentary and economical effects of the BSE
disease, we should for instance also mention the dread at the thought
of the uncontrolled spreading of a disease so far unknown, and at the
moment incurable, such as the so-called variant Creutzfeld-Jacob disease.
In the industrialised world, the fear of AIDS has in the meantime slightly
eased, because we have learned more about the contagion mechanisms and
because pharmacology has found a way of prolonging patients’ lives,
even thought at very high prices.
But
those who are following the developments of the situation in Sub-Saharan
Africa know that, over there, 25 to 33% of the population is HIV-positive,
that in countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe AIDS has cruelly claimed
the lives of generations of twenty- and thirty-year-old people, leaving
behind millions of orphans, and that within the next 50 years the population
in this area may actually be reduced by 50%. Having temporarily laid
aside the AIDS psychosis, Europe is now panicking about the BSE disease.
From a logical point of view, this is a rather irrational fear. In countries
which make use each year of hundreds of billions of cigarettes, even
though cigarette packs bear warning labels saying that they represent
a serious hazard for people’s health, and it is statistically proved
than dozens of thousands of smokers die from lung cancer each year,
people have, from one day to the next, cut down on meat consumption
by 20, 30, 40, and even 50 per cent, for fear of a contagion which today
is still highly unlikely. In Great Britain, where the “mad cow” problem
first broke out, the people who have died from the variant Creutzfeld-Jacob
disease have been less than one hundred in fifteen years, whereas in
the remaining part of Europe the victims can be counted on the fingers
of one hand. It is quite true that, according to scientists, the incubation
period for this disease ranges from 5 to 30 years, and that therefore,
in theory, we may already all be vectors. It is also true that, based
on what we have seen on TV, death by BSE is rather horrible. But, based
on the poor information we have available at the moment on the disease
transmission mechanism, it would appear that the risk of developing
it is really very low for human beings, and that eating beef at the
moment is not more dangerous than riding a motorbike. Whilst in doubt,
we eat chicken, awaiting that the BSE disease stops being a news item
and that some other collective fear takes its place. But the greenhouse
effect and the fear of epidemics are not our only causes for anguish.
There also is a much more tangible fear, an issue which was first raised
almost fifty years ago by the so-called “Club di Roma”, which was shelved
for a certain period of time and which has recently resurfaced: the
issue that man, by pursuing progress as if it were its only god, is
about to run out of the resources offered by the planet, which means
that future generations will find themselves without hydrocarbons, without
water, and possibly without other things which are unlikely to be replaceable.
We are here exiting the reign of irrationality and returning to the
much more solid area of economic forecasting. It is true that the fear
of being left without oil had already made its appearance in the 70s,
when we were hit by the first great wave of rising prices, and that
the busy research work which followed that shock has enable us to restore
supplies which will last us for at least one more generation.
But
now that we are learning to think in terms of long-range prospects,
we cannot but question what will happen when we shall have really scraped
the bottom of the barrel. We are now preparing to replace one of the
kings of the 20th century, the internal-combustion engine, which something
absolutely revolutionary.
We
have all enthusiastically plunged into the Internet world, even though
only a minority of us understands how the system actually works. But
since there are so many things which are difficult to understand, everything
seems to convey to us a subtle sense of uneasiness. I personally share
none of the protests against globalisation, the even violent attempts
to stop progress and freeze the world, so to speak. But we cannot deny
that progress is generating new problems, which we are not very well
equipped to deal with. There is an evident confusion as to areas of
competence, not to mention continuous power struggles. We then have
the conflict, which is nothing new, between science and religion, and
in certain cases even between science and ordinary morality.
How
far can we go with genetic manipulation, assisted procreation and the
other practices of the new frontier?
It
is out of question that, at present, science could solve many problems,
but again fear of the unknown stops it, as in the case of transgenic
food, which have so far not proved to be harmful in any way but which
millions of people refuse to eat. There is no doubt that the 21st century
has the potential for becoming the best in the history of humanity.
However,
we need to avoid overspeeding, slow down at bends and, if the engine
starts to race, make sure we see to it in time.
(traduzione
Interpres sas-Giussano)
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