What
changes with the Single Currency
The
introduction of the Euro will have a deep impact even on every-day life
Last
month we already saw how the Euro will change the life of the governments
by drastically curtailing their room to manoeuvre and by banning the competitive
depreciation option to re-establish internal unbalances. The new European
single currency will radically affect people's life as well by changing
their habits, introducing new attitudes, creating new opportunities and
new dangers too. A completely different era is now about to open, starting
from the return of prices with decimal figures we stopped being used to
in the past generations. Last month somebody proposed to simplify things
for common people by fixing the change between the lira and the Euro at
2000 lira instead of the quota lower by about two percentage points that
was applied when the Union was established. It would have clearly been
simpler because, from an accounting standpoint, it would have turned the
whole conversion operation into the equivalent of the “heavy lira” adoption.
It would have clearly also been more profitable for our industries as this
small devaluation would have guaranteed another easy help to make their
export prices more profitable. However, apart from the fact that a two-year
exchange stability was one of the fundamental requirements to enter the
EMU and that, however, the other ten members would have never allowed us
such a “trick”, this time we would not even have been interested: it would
have meant, in fact, that the Italians' properties would have suddenly
been devalued by some 300 thousand billion lira in Euro figures!
So
we have to be patient and to accept the fact that, instead of one thousand
lira - today's most common unit of measurement - we will not have to give
half a Euro but “only” 0,48875 (according to this moment's figures).
The
conversion's first trap is hidden right here, as everyone can easily understand.
As there will not be a currency lower than a Euro's cent in circulation
anymore, a rounding off to the highest figure of the prices will become
inevitable. Theoretically speaking, this should be rather negligible, if
not even infinitesimal, and won't probably affect the delicate cost of
living index. In practice, on the other hand, there will also be those
that will try to make larger profits, maybe even without their “victims'”
realising immediately about it, in the frantic and certainly even confusing
transition passage between one currency and the other. The danger will
clearly be as sharp as the figures to be converted are small. The transition
phase for many people, chiefly the elderly used to counting in lira, will
however create many problems. Some even spoke of “epoch-making confusion”,
but maybe piling on the agony is a wrong attitude, especially if we consider
that the conversion will be taken over a rather long period of time and
that even the people at the Canicattì's market will find their way
to get to learn the new calculation methods.
Things
will get much more traumatic and expensive for the State, public bodies,
companies and mainly for the banks, especially if we consider that many
information systems are today integrated and that the non-synchronisation
of their conversion might have dramatic consequences. The material cost
alone for Italy was (prudentially, to avoid all alarms) estimated to be
30 thousand billion lira, accounting for a hefty cent of the GDP and the
equivalent of a small-sized financial measure. Even if the estimate were
not exact - some experts, however, even spoke of some 50 thousand billion
lira, including the aggregate induced activities - it will nevertheless
be a huge drain that will be concentrated in a considerably short period
of time and that will have a big impact on various sectors. Is it possible
that those who will have to bear all this will not try somehow to ultimately
lay it on consumers? Should this happen, will we be able to curb inflation
within the now compulsory 2% ceiling? This is another unknown detail in
the already problematic route towards that Stability Pact that we now have
to accept as some sort of straitjacket.
Apart
from the financial aspect, the conversion also entails a series of technical
problems that are creating much worry around. These problems concern software,
synchronisation, adjusting personnel and a whole series of other aspects
that not even the experts can number. After all this is an unprecedented
operation involving three hundred million people (in fact, it cannot work
in Italy if it doesn't work with similar ways and times even in other countries),
taking place in an extremely complex historical period. Everything, really
everything, must be changed in fact, from banknote to revenue stamps, from
machines that make out parking tickets to casinos' slot machines, from
Stock Exchange quotations to supermarkets' prices and so on and so forth.
The
new currency is now at the door, but how many of us have begun to think
about the total amount of our salary in Euro or what the price of milk
will be?
However,
apart from these snags, there will also be big advantages, especially for
the most entrepreneurial and dynamic part of our country that is already
used to interacting with Europe. There is that famous example of the Italian
citizen who leaves to tour Europe and who has to “change” his money whenever
crosses a border and who then goes home with a halved pile although he
did not spend even a lira. It is clear that, after the adoption of the
single currency which will allow us to shop indifferently in Munich, Paris
or Lisbon (but not in London, unfortunately, as the British government
decided to stay out of the EMU for the moment), travellers will not have
to pay any commissions anymore and will save considerably; they also won't
have that small change when they get home that cannot be changed and that
usually ends up and is forgotten in a drawer.
This
ultimately secondary benefit for the mere traveller becomes a huge earning
for people having a business relationship with foreigners, or want to invest
in securities belonging to another country of the Union or must make transactions
in currency. So there will be neither risks for the exchange, nor bank
commissions that are frequently uncontrollable concerning the conversion
from or into lire, nor all those unknown factors that still today, somehow,
involve operations with foreign countries. From a contractual standpoint,
selling a Düsseldorf's company will be like signing a contract with
a company in Pizzighettone. The huge benefits that the single market has
already brought to our companies (not only industrial) will double thanks
to the opportunity to do business in one's own currency, with the certainty
that when the amount of money that one will have to pay out or collect
expires, it won't change.
Another
by-product of the Euro will be low interest rates, meaning that by mingling
our volatile lira with other countries' currencies which have been virtuous
for a long time, we will be sure that a return to the past will not be
possible (with the exception of unexpected big problems that might have
so devastating an impact that we'd better touch wood). The meaning of all
this is that if I am an entrepreneur and I want to contract a loan at a
certain rate, I am entitled to expect that it will not considerably change
for quite a long period of time: this will clearly allow me to plan my
activities much better and, maybe, even to risk more.
The
competition factor will be at stake too in a much stronger way with respect
to what happened so far. The mortgage issue that focussed the media's attention
for some days at the end of April is, within such context, emblematic.
Because of the differential of the still existing interest rates with the
other countries of the Union even as the final closing phase of the single
currency is approaching, due to both the lira's traditional weakness and
to our banks' lower efficiency, mortgages were still considerably more
expensive than in the rest of Europe. Some mortgages were old pathologically
- interest rates had been agreed on when our inflation was still around
4 to 5% and the treasury bills' yield was 12 - others were new physiologically,
because in Italy the spread between interests receivable and interests
payable has always been higher than in anywhere else. So the coming of
the problem to the fore and the wide advertisement of cheaper mortgages
offered by some specialised British banks were enough for some of our banks
to make the best of a bad job and start to offer (risking losses) a 5%
rate too in order not to miss out on the market.
The
single currency, alongside a complete opening of the borders, will also
reduce, if not even eliminate, the differences in price currently existing
between the various countries for the same products. Due to some clear
reasons related to operating costs, a coke at the Champs-Elysées
will always be more expensive than one at Baggio, but for other products
(cars, for instance), certain tricks that big multinationals are doing
now will no longer be possible. The whole thing will maybe deprive us of
the pleasure of going shopping in other countries but everything should
be cheaper because the prices should level down. For a complete standardisation
to take place, however, it will be necessary to wait for the introduction
of a single fiscal system as well for all the members of the EMU, and this
requires some further steps to be taken to achieve a European unity that,
despite some willing people's efforts, still has to come.
On
the whole, the Euro should provide the Italian citizen with a mixture of
convenience and of stability that, after the initial bewilderment, will
certainly be taken favourably. Beyond the sentimental, so to speak, regret
for a currency that, in good and bad, has been with us as from the unity
of Italy, we should also feel as travellers who, after a stormy voyage,
finally reach a safe harbour. The lira has been devalued too many times,
it has gone through too many critical moments and has made too many management
mistakes for the Italians to disapprove of a “loss of sovereignty” that
the introduction of the Euro entails. There is no need to go back to the
times when exporting capitals was a criminal offence and when people resorted
to all sorts of tricks to transfer their money abroad when the national
currency was unstable, to understand that this currency will unquestionably
rank second, if not even first, in the world in terms of stability and
purchasing power, and this is certainly a reassuring thing.
Furthermore,
the awareness that we will have to gain these certainties every day, will
presumably induce us, as a nation, to have a virtuous behaviour that we
neglected in the past whose advantages, however, we appreciate today.
We
will also have to change many bad old habits. Despite being a founding
member of Europe, Italy continues to have an awfully small-town behaviour,
showing little interest for the things and the people on the other side
of the Alps. This situation certainly has to change when the Euro is adopted,
because a Spanish or Belgian Minister of Economics' behaviour that we might
overlook today, will become relevant for our every-day life too. Both financial
operators as well as a large number of people will have a direct interest
to know about what happens in the rest of the Union. Alongside this interest,
the knowledge of languages, abroad stages, a push towards a general integration
will increase. And there will also be an unquestionable advantage for our
ability to develop a “country system” custom-built for the new needs.
Those
who are now complaining about the birth of an incomplete Euro that will
not circulate in four out of fifteen countries of the Union - among them
the important Great Britain - are certainly right. This division bears
many upsetting questions which will not ease the starting phase of an experiment
that, to be completely new in the history of the world finance, is also
less prone to stumble. Some countries like Great Britain, Sweden and Denmark,
in fact, although had the right parameters, decided not to enter the EU
whereas others, like Greece, really did not manage to get the standards
in time. Everybody hopes that this division might be settled
within two or three years, and for this to happen it is necessary for the
Euro to be a real success. And we have to contribute as citizens by learning
to “think European”.

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